With one month to go in the 2023 College Football Season, this year’s College Football Playoff has come into focus. On Tuesday night the CFP Committee released the initial playoff rankings for this season.
As the final stretch begins Ohio State has the top spot, followed by Georgia, Florida State, and Michigan. Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama are the next four out of the four-team format in a playoff picture loaded with blueblood programs. All of that talent in the rankings begs the question – what would things look like if the 12-team playoff began this year, rather than next year?
While we’ll have to wait another year to see the 12-team playoff play out, that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun with this year’s rankings. What would happen if the current rankings were put into the 12-team format? Let’s look game-by-game and see who would end up as the National Champion.
A couple of things to keep in mind as we do this. First, the format. The top four seeds get byes, with seeds 5-12 playing in the first round in a game that will be held on-campus. Those winners then move along the bracket to face the top four teams, without any reseeding (so the No. 1 team faces the winner of the 8-9 game, no matter what happens elsewhere).
Remember, the first four seeds all go to conference champions. That means that if a non-conference champion is in the top four, they’ll drop the fifth spot and lose the first-round bye.
There’s also one spot reserved for the highest-ranked Group Of Five conference champion. If there is no G5 team in the top 12, the team ranked 12th loses its spot to that team.
Keeping all of that in mind, a 12-team playoff with the current rankings would look like this (we’ll work with the assumption that the highest-ranked team in each conference ends up winning the conference championship)…
Byes:
- No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
- No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion)
- No. 3 Florida State (ACC champion)
- No. 4 Washington (Pac-12 champion)
First-round matchups (games played on campus)
- No. 5 Michigan (at-large) hosts No. 12 Tulane (ACC Champion)
- No. 6 Oregon (at-large) hosts No. 11 Penn State (at-large)
- No. 7 Texas (Big 12 Champion) hosts No. 10 Ole Miss (at-large)
- No. 8 Alabama (at-large) hosts No. 9 Oklahoma (at-large)
So, what would happen if the games were to play out this way? Let’s have some fun and ‘predict’ some of these matchups. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll look at the teams for the play and resume they’ve put forward to this point, and not add in predictions for the remainder of the regular season (basically, taking a ‘if the season ended today’ approach).
1st Round
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan
Michigan’s strong ground game would be put to the test against Tulane’s defense, which ranks fourth in the nation allowing just 78.9 yards per game on the ground. While the Green Wave may be able to limit Michigan’s offense, it’s tough to see how their own offense would be able to capitalize on the chances. This may end up being a low-scoring game, but on a cold Ann Arbor day with a crowd juiced up on a ‘Michigan vs. the Nation’ narrative, the Wolverines should be able to grind their way to a win. WINNER: MICHIGAN
No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Oregon
Once again, home-field advantage plays a major role here. Bo Nix has struggled to win big games on the road this year, but with the Nittany Lions having to fly across the country to meet the Ducks in Eugene, Nix methodically marches the Ducks offense up and down the field. Meanwhile, it’d be a tough spot for Penn State’s first-year starting quarterback, Drew Aller, who already struggled on the road in a big game against Ohio State. Ducks win comfortably. WINNER: OREGON
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Texas
Down in Austin, the Rebels and Longhorns meet in what would likely be a shootout. Texas has already proven it can hang with and beat SEC competition, having gone into Tuscaloosa to knock off Tuscaloosa in September. Meanwhile, Ole Miss was only able to score 10 points on that same Alabama team just a few weeks later. Lane Kiffin’s offense is clicking better now than it was then, but this Texas defense would be their toughest test since (we’re working off of the current rankings, so we’re disregarding Ole Miss’ upcoming Nov. 11 game against Georgia for now). The Rebels will put up points, but not enough points to win what would be a high-scoring game. WINNER: TEXAS
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Alabama
Both of these teams have struggled against lesser opponents at times, resulting in games that shouldn’t have been close coming down to the wire. Ultimately this one comes down to the history of Nick Saban’s defenses against mobile quarterbacks, and Dillon Gabriel pulling out some magic to earn a late win. WINNER: OKLAHOMA
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
Between its clock-killing offense and stifling defense, Ohio State controls the ball, tempo, and time of possession of this matchup. Oklahoma hasn’t faced a team with the pure physical presence of the Buckeyes, who muscle their way to a comfortable win. WINNER: OHIO STATE
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Texas
Texas may have knocked off one SEC opponent in reality (Alabama) and another in our little thought experiment here (Ole Miss), but the Bulldogs are a different kind of challenge. The Bulldogs swarm Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers, and don’t allow time for Texas’ downfield passing game to develop. Like the Red River Shootout, this could end up being a turnover-heavy game for Texas, setting Georgia’s offense up with multiple short-field opportunities to take advantage of. WINNER: GEORGIA
No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 6 Oregon
This would be just the third-ranked game of the season for Florida, after the season opener against LSU and a win over a No. 16 Duke team with a quarterback playing on one leg. Meanwhile, Oregon is very battle-tested coming out of the Pac-12. Plus, Oregon’s 11th-ranked defense matches up well against the Seminoles’ big playmakers. Maybe if this game ends up as the Sugar Bowl or Peach Bowl Florida State gets a bit of a home-field pop, but not enough to stave off the upset. WINNER: OREGON
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 5 Michigan
Our 4-5 matchup might end up being the most fun game of the whole tournament. Michigan’s methodic style against Washington’s air-it-out big-play approach. However, one is built better for postseason play. Michigan’s secondary holds Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, and the Husky passing game in check just enough to take a close, back-and-forth game. WINNER: MICHIGAN
Semifinals
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Michigan
Rivalry game for a shot at a National Championship! Ohio State, after two years of getting embarrassed by Michigan in their annual rivalry matchup, gets revenge on the biggest stage. As they did against Penn State earlier this year, the Buckeyes employ a bend-don’t-break defense forcing perfection out of the Wolverines offense, while allowing Marvin Harrison Jr. to take over the game while they have the ball. WINNER: OHIO STATE
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Oregon
We’ve seen this movie before. Georgia and Oregon met to open the 2022 season and the Bulldogs boat-raced the Ducks in a 49-3 final. Bo Nix in particular struggled significantly in this game, throwing two interceptions. It may look a little better now that Nix isn’t in his first game in a new offensive system, but that won’t make enough of a difference. WINNER: GEORGIA
National Championship
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georiga
All of that – the extra teams, the extra games – to change…nothing. The top two ranked teams still meet in the championship, and Georgia gets its three-peat. While the expanded 12-team playoff will be fun because it’s simply more high-level football to watch than before, it hardly guarantees new outcomes. Based on the initial rankings (which will change, and maybe we’ll update these projections as they do), it could end up looking all too familiar when the clock hits 0:00 on the final game of the season. WINNER: GEORGIA
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