When the four-team College Football Playoff was introduced 10 years ago, many people had the same major question – with five major conferences, isn’t having just four spots asking for a problem? What if all Power Five conferences have playoff-worthy teams?
For a decade, the CFP and its committee dodged that problem. The situation just never came up. That is, until the final year of the current format.
In the last year before the playoff expands to a 12-team format, the nightmare scenario occurred. There were three unbeaten conference champions (Michigan, Washington, Florida State), a fourth one-loss conference champion that beat the No. 1 team in the toughest conference championship game in the nation (Alabama), and a fifth- one-loss conference champion that beat that other one-loss team (Texas). An injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis late in the season gave the committee the opening to make the Seminoles the odd ones out.
In a 12-team playoff, that wouldn’t have happened. Even if they didn’t get put in the top four seeds, the Seminoles could have had a play-in game to prove they’re still up to competing for a National Championship. Other teams like Georgia – which was the first team to drop from No. 1 to outside of the top four after a loss – would also get another chance.
What if the four-team playoff had happened a year earlier, and this was all avoided? We’ll never know for sure, but we can have fun guessing. We know what the matchups would be, so why not pick the games?
Byes:
- No. 1 Michigan (Big Ten champion)
- No. 2 Washington (Pac-12 champion)
- No. 3 Alabama (SEC champion)
- No. 4 Texas (Big 12 champion)
First-round matchups (games played on campus)
- No. 5 Florida State (ACC champion) hosts No. 12 Liberty (CUSA champion/highest ranked G5 champion)
- No. 6 Georgia (at-large) hosts No. 11 Ole Miss (at-large)
- No. 7 Ohio State (Big 12 Champion) hosts No. 10 Penn State (at-large)
- No. 8 Oregon (at-large) hosts No. 9 Missouri (at-large)
1st round
No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State
Florida State certainly wouldn’t be the same team without Jordan Travis, but the roster still includes multiple top-100 picks on offense at the skill positions and one of the best defenses in the country. That should all be more than enough to help the ‘Noles knock off a Liberty team that – while undefeated – had the ninth easiest (out of 133) strength of schedule this year.
The Flames haven’t seen any team close to what Florida State brings and would have to make a major adjustment on the road in a very tough environment against a team with a ton to prove. Not happening. WINNER: FLORIDA STATE
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia
In the first of two conference matchups in this first round, Georgia hosts Ole Miss for the second time this season. The sides met in Athens back on Nov. 11 – a game Georgia won 52-17.
Ole Miss didn’t look close to Georgia in that meeting. Plus, is Georgia going to lose two games in a row after a 28-game winning streak? That doesn’t seem likely. WINNER: GEORGIA
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State
Just like in the last game, these two teams already played once this year. Ohio State won a 20-12 rock fight in late October in Columbus.
For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll assume neither school’s quarterback would have entered the transfer portal yet with a playoff game on the line. So neither team gets to turn to its backup.
Ohio State is 9-1 against Penn State in the James Franklin era, and Franklin has never won in Columbus. The stakes of a playoff game aren’t exactly the circumstances to change that. WINNER: OHIO STATE
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon
This game would rule. We have an experienced Oregon team against a Missouri team with some of the most talented underclassmen in the country.
Oregon was playing some of its best football of the year before losing to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The question is, would that loss galvanize the Ducks or kill their momentum? Missouri would come in hot, having won three in a row and four of five to close the season.
This game being in Autzen makes all the difference. The first-round games being on campus becomes a factor here. WINNER: OREGON
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Oregon
This is a battle between two teams that play a very similar style of football. A quick-release passing game paired with a strong running game, and solid defense.
Michigan’s defense, allowing just 9.5 points per game, makes the difference. The Wolverines would be more of a problem for Bo Nix than the Ducks would be for J.J. McCarthy. WINNER: MICHIGAN
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 Ohio State
Here, we have a matchup of arguably the two best wide receiver groups in the nation. It’s Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan for Washington against Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka, and Julian Fleming for Ohio State.
In the end, this game comes down to which quarterback can make the most of what’s at his disposal. Michael Penix out-duels Kyle McCord in an absolute shootout. WINNER: WASHINGTON
No. 3 Texas vs. No 6 Georgia
Part of what makes Texas’ offense so effective is that the Longhorns simply have too many weapons for most college defenses to match up with personnel-wise. The key word there? Most.
Georgia has a defense that can run with the many options around Quinn Ewers, who wouldn’t have running back Jonathon Brooks. While Texas did already beat one SEC team this year in Alabama, that offense was still finding its footing while Georgia was steadily improving offensively before the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs get a close one here for the first upset of the tournament. WINNER: GEORGIA
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Florida State
The play-in game this season really deserved. A one-loss Alabama team that likely got into the four-team playoff because of the brand value of the SEC, against the Florida State team that was moved to make room.
In the end though, it’s just hard to see how Florida State beats Alabama without Travis, when the Seminoles could barely beat Louisville. In our little thought experiment the Tide still get to play New Year’s Day over the Seminoles – but at least this way there’s more of a case that they earned it. WINNER: ALABAMA
Semifinals
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
For most of the season, Michigan has hidden the inexperience of J.J. McCarthy behind a strong running game. His 321 dropbacks rank 40th among all Power Five quarterbacks. Even when he throws it’s most been as an extension of the passing game, with his ADOT of 9.8 ranks 33rd.
Against Alabama’s stout run defense though, Michigan would need McCarthy to be much more of a playmaker. Having to truly take over a game in this setting is a big ask for a young quarterback. Nick Saban’s defense gets the better of him, and Alabama moves the ball just enough by running Jalen Milroe to get the job done. WINNER: ALABAMA
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 6 Georgia
Washington and Texas are similarly built teams. Just like we said for that quarterfinal game, Georgia can simply man up with the Washington offense in ways other teams can’t.
The Huskies put up a fight here, but Georgia gets just enough offensively against a weak Washington defense. That sets up an all-SEC Championship. WINNER: GEORGIA
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 6 Georgia
I’m sure many of you are furious about an all-SEC championship game. I get it. But we’ve seen in the past this is generally how the playoff goes.
It’s very hard to beat a team twice in a season. For Georgia to do that, the Bulldogs would need to be more impactful on offense than they were in the SEC Championship Game. Could they get more out of Carson Beck? Maybe a bit, but the meeting earlier this month showed where these teams are at. WINNER: ALABAMA
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