In the modern NFL, quarterbacks rule the landscape of the league and the teams with the best quarterbacks, the superstars, tend to be the ones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year. From Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees to Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers to Ben Roethlisberger, the era of the game manager quarterbacks leading teams to the Super Bowl seems to be a thing of the past. So, in today’s modern NFL world can a team win it all with more of a game manager quarterback?
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Looking at the Super Bowl champions over the past 10 seasons, there is of course a lot of Tom Brady, but there is also a trend building.
Nine of the 10 seasons saw teams win the Super Bowl with quarterbacks that were in the Top 10 in QBR and six of the 10 throwing for 4,000+ yards. The only true outlier over the past 10 seasons was in 2015 with Manning and the Denver Broncos, who only played in 10 games and at that stage in his career was more of a game manager, but still a legend.
Teams are building around superstar talents and playmakers like Mahomes, with the previous generation of Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Wilson all either retired or winding down their careers.
The Total QBR stat has data going back to 2006, where in the seven other years there were three quarterbacks in the Top 10, three outside the Top 10 and one Eli Manning year where he was right in the gray area at No. 10 overall.
Game managers were much more successful before the NFL transitioned from the running game being the core of a great offense to the passing game being the choice of attack.
Now having an arsenal of wide receivers, elite pass- atching tight ends and a serviceable running game around a play making quarterback is the norm. That is becoming more and more the trend over the last five seasons with Mahomes and Brady winning two Super Bowls each and Matt Stafford getting traded to an offense ready to take advantage of his play-making still set.
Well, what does that mean for this year’s Super Bowl contenders? It means if your team does not have a quarterback in the Top 10 in Total QBR, is on track to throw 4,000+ yards and elite play-making abilities, the odds are not in their favor to win at the highest level.
Right now, through four games, the top quarterbacks in Total QBR and on track to throw for 4,000+ yards are Brock Purdy (San Francisco), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami), Josh Allen (Buffalo), Mahomes (Kansas City), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) and Jared Goff (Detroit).
Dak Prescott (Dallas), Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay) and Geno Smith (Seattle) are all right there in the Top 10 in Total QBR, but outside the qualifying in yards per game to be on track for a 4,000+ yard season.
Those are the teams and quarterbacks with the statistical profile to be Super Bowl contenders, with each all at the top of their division or in the mix. This profile is key to teams drafting, signing and building their rosters around quarterbacks now and in the future.
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