Through NFL Week 5, the cream of the NFL has separated itself from the rest of the mess. In no particular order, the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have emerged as real championship threats; a combined 14-1 with the one loss between the three coming by a single point on the opening Thursday night of the campaign.
More than half the league, 18 teams, are somewhere between 3-2 and 2-3. Those teams have shown the ability to lose to any team on any given Sunday.
There is just one winless team remaining, the Carolina Panthers (more on them in a bit). But the teams in the 1-4 group that vary in degree from unlucky to hopeless. There are teams that have shown signs of both, as well (looking at you, Denver Broncos).
So with that, let’s overreact now that NFL Week 5 is officially in the books.
5. The Carolina Panthers are stranded at the dreaded corner of No and Where
The Carolina Panthers are 0-5 and visit the Miami Dolphins in their final game between a Week 7 bye. And the outlook is bleak.
Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer gave up first-round picks in 2023 and 2024, a 2023 second-rounder, a 2025 second-round selection and wide receiver D.J. Moore to trade up eight spots with Chicago. That got them quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall selection.
Quarterbacks are the key in the NFL and the Panthers identified Young as their guy. But in trading away Moore, they took away what would have been his security blanket and a guy able to make plays downfield. Adam Thielen serves the part of security blanket well, with 38 catches in 46 targets. But he’s not exactly a deep threat.
Coach Frank Reich has a tight leash on Young, who is averaging only 5.2 yards per attempt. The offensive line has surrendered 15 sacks, the Panthers have found the end zone in just seven of 13 red-zone possessions and they’ve turned the ball over eight times.
But at least if they finish with the worst record, they’ll get to continue their rebuild with the first overall … oh, wait. Yes, every Carolina loss is a win for the Bears and their rebuild.
Reality: It really is that bleak for the Panthers. Almost 300 years ago, Alexander Pope wrote that has been said that hope springs eternal. In the case of Carolina, springing hope is a long way off.
4. The end of an era
Bill Belichick’s run as generalissimo of the New England Patriots has been as long as it has been successful. Belichick is 263-112 since arriving in Foxborough in 2000, with six Super Bowl wins, a 30-12 postseason record and just three losing seasons in 23 years.
But after a two-week stretch during which New England was depantsed in Dallas 38-3 only to come home to a 34-0 beatdown at the hands of the Saints, it’s abundantly clear these are not the “Patriot Way” Patriots anymore.
Mac Jones is looking over his shoulder for the hook that has come each of the last two games. The defense is weary while dealing with a minus-8 giveaway/takeaway ratio. Since beating the Jets on Sept. 24, New England’s offense has produced 409 yards. That’s in two games.
Sunday’s shutout loss was the first time the Pats had been blanked in seven years, dating to a 16-0 loss to the Bills on Oct. 2, 2016. That was the final game of Tom Brady’s four-game suspension for the football-inflation scandal.
(We don’t use “-gate” for scandals in this space; think how weird the world would be had the infamous 1972 breakin had taken place at a Ramada Inn rather than the Watergate hotel. Deflatada just sounds silly.)
Belichick is overseeing a dying empire. The mystique in New England is dead and it will take a change of direction at this point to fix things, if only because 71-year-old geniuses aren’t renowned for introspection.
Reality: Belichick is a Hall of Famer as a coach and as an executive for the dynasty he built in New England. Few organizations have had that much sustained success but it is clear that his time has passed. He won’t quit (the only time he did was his 25-minute or so tenure as head coach of the Jets in 2000). But this is a franchise that is desperate for a new direction.
3. There is a team on the cusp of the elite tier
The Detroit Lions took care of business on Sunday. They surrendered a couple of fourth-quarter scored after taking a 35-10 lead over the Panthers. With the win, Detroit is now 4-1, in control of the NFC North and owns a road win over the Chiefs.
The only reason Detroit can’t be added to the 49ers-Chiefs-Eagles triumverate? The pass defense leaks a bit too often. Teams play from behind against the Lions, which can distort the numbers. But in 17 red-zone defensive assignments, Detroit kept opponents out of the end zone just six times.
Eight of those touchdowns came through the air. Road games at Tampa Bay and Baltimore the next two weeks present Detroit with an opportunity to move into that top tier.
Reality: No one is laughing at the Lions anymore. The often-mocked hiring of Dan Campbell is no longer a joke, either. Jared Goff looks the part of an elite-level quarterback and David Montgomery is a workhorse in the backfield. Throw in do-everything defender Aidan Hutchinson and Detroit is the real deal.
2. As long as Jerry Jones is the star in Dallas, the Cowboys will underachieve
There is a simple truth about professional sports. No one bought a ticket to watch an owner win. But since Jerry Jones chased Jimmy Johnson out of Dallas, he’s been the unquestioned star attraction of the Cowboys.
This is the 29th season since Big D’s last Super Bowl appearance and victory. For perspective, that matches Tom Landry’s coaching tenure with the Cowboys. And after Sunday night’s debacle at San Francisco (OK, Santa Clara), the truth is clear: Dallas still doesn’t have what it takes.
All the blowouts of mediocre teams don’t change the fact that Dallas comes up small when the stakes are big. Three straight possessions ended on interceptions in the second half of the Cowboys’ 42-10 loss. There’s not a defense on the planet that holds up under that sort of strain.
When the owner decides he’s the main attraction, the product on the field becomes an afterthought. Jerry Jones is the problem in Dallas and he’s the one piece that can’t be pushed aside to fit it.
Reality: The Cowboys have five postseason wins since their last Super Bowl triumph after the 1995 season, all in the wild-card round. For all his talk about wanting to win, Jones seems content being the main character in Jerryworld. Until that dynamic changes, the Big D will stand for disappointment.
1. The AFC South is the moshpit of mediocre
Through NFL Week 5, the AFC South’s aggregate record stands at 10-10. The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-2 while the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are 2-3.
The Colts have lost to the Jags, who have lost to the Texans, who have lost to the Colts, who have lost to the Titans. The favorite the rest of the way? Chaos. Pure, beautiful chaos.
None of these teams seems to have the ability to break away from the pack and the first team to eight wins might end up taking the division.
The X-factor is Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor. An All-Pro in 2021, Taylor just signed a new deal with the Colts and played 10 snaps in the Colts’ win over Tennessee on Sunday. Seven of those resulted in touches (six carries for 18 yards and a reception for another 16).
If Taylor is close to the player who averaged 5.5 yards a carry and piled up NFL highs of 2,171 yards from scrimmage and 20 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns, he can help Indianapolis separate from the rest of the division.
The question for the Colts will be the defense, currently ranked 28th allowing 382 yards per game. Of course, a healthy and productive Taylor keeps that defense on the sidelines longer. Fumble recoveries are great (Indy has four defensive recoveries) but aren’t sustainable.
Reality: Someone will win the AFC South and likely exit in the wild-card round. But with three of the teams appearing to have solid young quarterbacks (sorry, Tennessee), this group will be much more interesting in the not-too-distant future.
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