Could Italy really miss a third consecutive World Cup in 2026?

Only one nation (Brazil) has won more men’s World Cups than Italy. The Azzurri is an established powerhouse of the international game having ruled the soccer world four times in their history. Somehow, though, Italy have missed the last two World Cups and are potentially on course for a third tournament on the sidelines.

Sunday’s 4-1 home defeat to Norway might not have held much consequence considering Italy were all but certain to finish second in their group before kick-off, but it was another sobering sign of where the Azzurri is right now. There’s no guarantee they will qualify for the 2026 World Cup through the playoffs.

Two decades ago – when Italy last won the World Cup – the country was in the habit of producing world class players. They had Gianluigi Buffon in goal as one of the best shot-stoppers of his generation, with Fabio Cannavaro and Marco Materazzi in front of him as Italy’s starting centre backs.

In midfield Italy had Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso (now national team head coach) as a central pairing with Daniele De Rossi as an option to use off the bench against France in the final. Francesco Totti was the creative heart of Marcelo Lippi’s team in the floating number 10 role with Luca Toni as the focal point. This is without even mentioning Alessandro Del Piero as a depth option.

Now, Italy are scrambling for players able to hold their own at the top level. Francesco Pio Esposito and Mateo Retegui started up front for the Azzurri against Norway on Sunday. Nicolo Barella is possibly their only proven difference-maker. The generational drop-off has been dramatic.

Gattuso was left so exasperated at the nature of Italy’s World Cup qualification campaign that he took aim at the format of qualification itself. “In my day, the best [group] runners-up went straight to the World Cup, now the rules have changed,” said the Azzurri manager who replaced Luciano Spalletti halfway through the campaign.

“You’d have to ask the people who make the groups and the rules. In 1990 and 1994, there were two African teams, now there are nine. It’s not a controversy, but there are difficulties, and we know it well. If we look at South America, where six out of 10 teams go directly to the World Cup and the seventh heads into a play-off with a team from Oceania. The system needs to change in Europe.”

Gattuso is certainly right that UEFA teams have to fit through a narrow funnel to qualify for the World Cup, vying for just 16 places in a 48-team tournament. There is a high level at the top of the European international game and Italy have paid the price for falling behind the curve. In another confederation, though, they would surely stand a better chance of qualifying.

Most, however, see this as sour grapes from a manager who, like Roberto Mancini and Spalletti before, has struggled to find the solutions to a generational problem for an established soccer nation. The biggest issue for Italy is they aren’t producing the sort of talent they were two decades ago.

Young players are receiving fewer opportunities in Serie A. While England, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain are producing prospects to sustain their national teams in the years to come, Italy have been left behind and it’s difficult to envisage how they can possibly make it back to the top any time soon.

It wasn’t so long ago that Italy won Euro 2020, but that now looks to be an anomaly within the Azzurri’s recent history. Gattuso could still lead his country to the 2026 World Cup through the playoffs and Italy could still make an impact at next summer’s tournament. The vision of Italy’s next generation, however, has never been murkier.