Two Texas-based schools meet in the first round of the NIT as Texas State takes on North Texas. Below are some predictions and best bets for the contest.
North Texas is the favorite entering Tuesday’s game.
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Texas State vs. North Texas Game Time and Odds
- Game Day: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
- Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Denton, TX
- Stadium: The Super Pit
- Moneyline favorite: North Texas (-405)
- Spread: Mean Green (-8.5)
- Total: N/A
UNT went 24-6 this season, while Texas State went 21-7. So if the teams are close in the win/loss column — or, at least, in the loss column — then why is North Texas such a heavy favorite?
Let’s look at some bets you can make on Tuesday’s game.
BOBCATS VS. MEAN GREEN PREDICTIONS
BEST BET: TAKE THE NORTH TEXAS MONEYLINE (-405)
North Texas is the better team here. The Mean Green had a good case for getting an at-large bid to the tournament after having a huge run near the end of the season, running off a 15-game winning streak at one point. A disappointing 42-36 loss to Louisiana Tech in the conference tournament doomed this team to the NIT, but this is still a team that can beat anyone. They were 50th in KenPom rating, ahead of tournament teams like Creighton and Miami.
BEST BET: BET AGAINST THE SPREAD (North Texas -8.5)
While UNT is the clear favorite, a spread of 8.5 feels a little big. Even when the Mean Green were winning game after game, the final scores were close. During that 15-game winning streak, there were seven games decided by single digits. And Texas State did win nine in a row before losing in the conference tournament to Lousiana by five. I’m not comfortable betting on UNT at 8.5.
BEST BET: TAKE THE TEXAS STATE TOTAL POINTS OVER (54.5)
The Bobcats were 131st in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency this season. The team averaged 70.7 points per game this season. I get that this game is against a good North Texas team, but Texas State was held under 54.4 points just one time in the regular season, when they scored 47 against Houston.
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