The Rose Bowl game between No. 1 Michigan (13-0, 10-0 Big Ten) and No. 4 Alabama (12-1, 9-0 SEC) will be the first of two College Football Playoff games played on Monday. Is it ultimately the more important one?
Michigan comes into this four-team tournament – with No. 2 Washington and No. 3 Texas joining in the other semifinal – as the highest ranked squad and one of just two unbeaten teams. Meanwhile, Alabama may be the hottest team in the group. After a Week 2 loss, the Crimson Tide just continued to get better, a stretch that culminated with a 27-24 win over Georgia in the SEC Championship. With that win Alabama became the first team to beat Georgia – which won its bowl game 63-3 over Florida State – in over a calendar year.
From a team makeup point of view, there’s a stark difference between this year’s Rose Bowl teams (Michigan and Alabama) and Sugar Bowl teams (Washington and Texas). Michigan and Alabama are defensive driven teams, while Washington and Texas light up the scoreboard. That reality can be seen in the totals for both games.
That’s not to say any of the teams are weak on the opposite side of the ball – Texas had a Top 20 defense and Alabama and Michigan both have Top 20 offenses. It’s more about what they lean on.
For those who believes defense wins championships, then this game is essentially for the National Championship. That’s what the oddsmakers in Las Vegas believe – both Michigan and Alabama are currently favorited in hypothetical matchups against both Washington and Texas.
So, who has the edge in what many view as the de facto National Championship? Look for this game to be decided when it’s Michigan’s offense against Alabama’s defense on the field.
Throughout the season, Michigan has won with methodical, physical offensive drives centering around the running back position. That grind it out approach paired with a strong defense allowed Michigan to win, while not playing aggressive offensively against some of the nation’s better defenses.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been in the passenger’s seat despite starting all 13 games this season. McCarthy threw just 287 passes this season. That ranked 79th in the nation. When he did throw he ranked middle of the pack in average depth of target, at 9.8 yards per pass.
Will Michigan be able to replicate that strategy this week? Not only does Alabama have one of the best defenses the Wolverines will have faced all year, but one of the most explosive offenses as well. Jalen Milroe has made the Tide a quick-strike team at quarterback.
Ball control and time of possession will be massive for the Wolverines in this one. If they can play controlled and shorten the game, they’ll force Alabama’s offense to be perfect – which may limit its aggressiveness. Yet if Michigan starts turning the ball over, Alabama is built to run away with the game.
