With NFL Week 10 in the books, more season is in the rearview mirror than what lies ahead. The playoff races are taking shape, particularly in the NFC, where there is a game-and-a-half gap between seventh and eighth place.
More tightly bunched, 11 AFC teams are at .500 or better and eight teams are within one game of the No. 7 spot in the conference playoff chase. That means lots of implications on intraconference games as the season winds down.
Let’s overreact to NFL Week 10, shall we?
5. The Buffalo Bills are not a good football team
The Buffalo Bills keep finding new and interesting ways to lose football games and find themselves at 5-5 after a mistake-laden defeat at home to the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
Buffalo’s offense resembles a slot machine rigged to pay out big jackpots on nearly every spin, giving the ball away 18 times in 10 games so far. That includes four turnovers in its 24-22 gut-wrencher on Monday. The Bills gave Denver kicker Will Lutz a second chance to make a last impression. A costly 12-men-on-the-field penalty wiped out a missed 41-yard field goal attempt.
Lutz’s 36-yard game-winner made it six kicks for victories as time expired in NFL Week 10, a record. Josh Allen leads the NFL with 11 interceptions. That’s one more than the embattled Mac Jones of the New England Patriots and first-year starter Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers. Not exactly the company one expects a two-time All-Pro with eight postseason starts to keep.
There’s little evidence the Bills can clean up their act and their stranglehold on the AFC East appears to be weakening.
4. The Minnesota Vikings defying logic
Imagine if, back in August, someone said the Minnesota Vikings would (a) start 0-3, (b) lose All-World wideout Justin Jefferson in Week 5 and (c) lose quarterback Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles’ injury in their eighth game and (d) be 6-4 and in control of a playoff berth?
Such is life for the Vikings through NFL Week 10. Joshua Dobbs probably knows most of the players in his huddle now. Dobbs is 1-0 as the starter after leading a comeback win off the bench five days (and no practices) after joining the club.
The defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games, including two in Minnesota’s 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. It has won five straight games and just played its first turnover-free game of the season.
The Vikings go to Denver on Sunday and have games remaining against the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions (twice). Just imagine if they get Jefferson back from his hamstring injury for the home stretch.
3. Dan Campbell, the most interesting coach in the NFL
Widely mocked for his introductory press conference, during which he talked about biting kneecaps, no one is laughing at Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell anymore.
The Lions finished last season with eight wins in their last 10 games. They are 7-2, a game and a half up on Minnesota in the NFC North. Detroit owns the No. 2 spot in the playoff race in the NFC.
And Campbell’s willingness to gamble is a big reason why.
With 1:47 left in a 38-38 game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and in range for a go-ahead field goal, Campbell rolled the dice. On fourth-and-two, he left the offense on the field. The Lions ran out the rest of the clock after converting and Riley Patterson kicked the game-winner as time expired.
Detroit last won a championship in 1957 and has one playoff win since. That win came in 1991, so year, it’s been a while.
Campbell may not be conventional but the results are undeniable.
2. C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in the playoff race?
The Houston Texans won 11 games in the last three seasons under four different coaches. Another coaching change brought San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to Houston. Ohio State star C.J. Stroud fell to the Texans with the No. 2 overall pick.
All of that adds up to a 5-4 start for Houston and possession of the No. 7 spot in the AFC after a 30-27 road win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
Stroud had his first multiple-turnover game as a pro with an interception (just his second of the year) and two lost fumbles. But the Texans got the win anyway on new kicker Matt Ammendola’s 38-yard field goal at the gun.
Ahead of schedule? The Texans’ rebuild goes much further than that. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in Week 4 without four starters on their offensive line. Sunday’s win marked two straight weeks with late game-winning drives directed by Stroud.
Houston trails the Jacksonville Jaguars by a game in the AFC South. But it already won at Jacksonville 37-17 in Week 3 and hosts the Jaguars on Nov. 26.
The Texans have the look of legitimacy.
1. The baffling boggle of bye-week returns
The San Francisco 49ers entered their bye in Week 9 with three straight losses. their longest skid since dropping four in a row in 2021.
The Jacksonville Jaguars went into their bye at the same time, winners of five straight, matching their finishing run that netted them the AFC South title in 2022.
The 49ers flew across the country to Jacksonville as the teams returned from their shared byes moving in absolutely opposite directions.
But San Francisco found its mojo. The Jaguars lost theirs. The result was a 34-3 blowout win for the 49ers. Trevor Lawrence turned the ball over three times, ate five sacks and finished the game watching his backup.
On the other hand, Brock Purdy flushed his recent poor play, throwing three touchdown passes with no giveaways. Christian McCaffrey did Christian McCaffrey things (95 yards rushing, 47 receiving). And Deebo Samuel was back on a limited basis after missing time with an injured shoulder. He scored on a 23-yard run while playing 35 snaps.
The 49ers recovered nicely during the bye. The Jaguars? Not so much.
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